Saudi Arabia’s recent airstrikes on Yemen’s port city of Mukalla have heightened fears that the country’s fragile political environment may spiral back into full-scale conflict. The strikes targeted weapons shipments reportedly intended for separatist forces aligned with the United Arab Emirates, reflecting growing divisions among anti-Houthi alliances and raising broader concerns over Gulf stability. In an unexpected turn, the UAE has announced it will withdraw its forces from Yemen, further complicating an already intricate web of regional dynamics.
The Southern Transitional Council (STC), backed by the UAE, has expanded its control over key provinces in southern Yemen, including Hadramout and Mahra. This development marks a critical shift in the country’s internal balance of power, particularly as the STC seizes vital oil facilities and other infrastructure. The group has long been advocating for the reinstatement of southern Yemen as an independent state, a status it held prior to unification with the north in 1990. The STC’s growing influence is likely to bolster its position in any negotiations aimed at resolving the Yemeni conflict.
Yemen has endured more than a decade of civil war, rooted in sectarian and political grievances. The Iran-aligned Houthi movement currently controls the populous northern zones, including the capital city of Sanaa. Meanwhile, the internationally recognized government, supported by Saudi Arabia and occasionally the UAE, governs parts of the south. The war, initially sparked in 2014 with the Houthis’ advance from Saada to Sanaa, has shattered Yemen’s economy and resulted in one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.
For much of the last year, violence in Yemen had somewhat diminished as warring factions reached a temporary stalemate. However, the latest clashes between the STC and forces loyal to the internationally recognized government underscore the fragile nature of these arrangements. While both groups primarily oppose the Houthis, their rivalry threatens to unravel alliances meant to bring stability to the country.
Saudi Arabia’s involvement in this new escalation reflects its increasing concern over the shifting dynamics in Yemen. Targeting the weapons shipment to the STC suggests an attempt to weaken separatist forces, which Saudi-backed Yemeni military units and tribal coalitions are struggling to counter. The Hadramout Tribal Alliance, supported by Riyadh, aims to retain control over Yemen’s largest province, which holds significant economic and strategic value thanks to its oil reserves and proximity to international trade routes.
The UAE’s announcement of troop withdrawal adds another layer of uncertainty. While UAE-funded militias like the STC will likely continue their operations on the ground, the formal exit of Emirati forces may diminish external support for southern separatist movements. This decision also reflects growing rifts between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, long considered pivotal partners in attempts to stabilize Yemen under the umbrella of their shared anti-Houthi campaigns.
The implications of these developments extend beyond Yemen itself, with risks spilling into broader Gulf dynamics. The country’s location along vital trade routes makes its stability paramount to regional and global economies. A renewed flare-up in Yemen could increase tensions in the Gulf, impact energy markets, and potentially invite further involvement from other powers such as Iran, which backs the Houthi rebels.
Despite international efforts toward peace, including United Nations mediation, Yemen’s future remains precarious. The growing territorial gains of UAE-backed forces, alongside the fragmented status of the anti-Houthi coalition, show that any resolution will be fraught with challenges. The STC’s demand for southern Yemen’s self-determination further complicates negotiations, as it clashes with the vision of a unified Yemen held by the internationally recognized government.
As both regional and local stakeholders continue to recalibrate their positions, one thing is clear: the path to peace in Yemen will require more concerted efforts to address deeply rooted divisions. Without meaningful dialogue and compromises, the country risks becoming not only a hotspot of violence but also a destabilizing force across a volatile region.
